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Slow and steady does it for recall Only registered voters' signatures count. So, recall backers said, they were at first slow to turn in signatures because they were checking names against voter rolls. They apparently did a good job. Contra Costa randomly checked 500 of 4,490 signatures turned in May 29 and found 90.6 percent were valid. "Ninety percent is stunning," said Steve Weir, county clerk-recorder since 1989. He cannot recall seeing such a high rate before. THRESHOLD. The better the validity rate, the fewer signatures to collect. "The validity rate is the thing everyone is going to be nervous about," said Dave Gilliard, a political consultant heading Rep. Darrell Issa's part of the recall effort. Recall backers need 897,158 valid signatures to reach the ballot. (That's 12 percent of ballots cast for governor last year.) If it looks close, signatures must be individually checked by county election officials across the state, something recall backers want to avoid because it would take so long. The alternative is to collect extra signatures so that a random check shows backers collected at least 110 percent of the total. That puts the threshold at 986,873. But if backers turned in only that, they would come up short. As many as one-third are typically invalid in signature-gathering efforts. At 80 percent validity, recall backers could avoid a hand count by turning in 1,233,591 signatures, which is their goal. At 90 percent, they would need only 1,096,526. That's why the Contra Costa validity check is such good news for recall backers. TIMING. The group is racing the clock. "It probably will be fairly close," Gilliard said. Make no mistake. He is confident the group will collect enough signatures to place Davis' fate before voters. The question is when. If the signatures are certified by Secretary of State Kevin Shelley by Sept. 4, then there will be a special statewide election in the fall. After Sept. 4, Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante could combine the recall vote with the March 2 primary, when his party's voters are expected in larger numbers for the Democratic presidential primary. Gilliard wants to avoid that. The higher Democratic turnout March 2 would help Davis. Moreover, it would make it difficult for Issa to run for governor in the recall election. The congressman wants to run before he stands for re-election to his House seat in the March primary. COUNTING. So the race is on to qualify the recall by Sept. 4. To meet that date, they must leave time for election officials randomly count and report to the state. There are benchmark dates along the way. Most agree July 16 is a key date. If recall backers turn in enough valid signatures to meet the 110 percent threshold by then, the signatures should be certified by Sept. 4. After July 16, there's uncertainty. Gilliard said that, as of Monday, recall backers had turned in 429,531 signatures. Another 385,000 were being checked by the campaign, he said. That's about 815,000 so far, if the recall backers are to be believed. At the current rate, they will just make it in time to force a special election. COST: Holding a special election is more costly than simply melding the balloting with the March primary. The latest estimate from the Secretary of State's office: $35 million to $45 million. Money-short counties will pay most of it.
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Reach Daniel Borenstein at 925-943-8248 or dborenstein@cctimes.com.
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