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Democrats brace for recall try Former state Sen. Art Torres, head of the California Democratic Party, has said he's determined to keep other Democrats from jumping on the ballot if the recall is put before the voters. The gamble is that with no Democrat on the ballot, voters will keep Davis in office rather than give the governorship to a Republican who has been thoroughly tarnished in what would be a fierce campaign. The risk is that if Davis loses, there will be no one but a Republican to replace him. For Democrats, the safety net would be gone. It's a tough strategy to enforce -- speculation abounds about Democrats willing to run -- and a frightful bet to make. But analysts say Democrats have little choice but to take the chance. Though it remains to be seen whether recall backers can qualify their measure for the ballot, they say they already have collected more than 400,000 signatures, about a third as many as they need to be sure that 900,000 are valid signatures of registered voters. And despite word that many GOP donors are keeping their wallets shut, money is coming in, most notably from Darrell Issa, a multimillionaire congressman with statewide aspirations. If the money keeps flowing, most experts say the recall will go before voters. "It's not clear what will happen," said Bob Mulholland, the Democratic Party's top strategist. "It's our hope that no Democrat runs." "Risky strategy but smart politics," said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute for Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. "It's a big risk, but it's the only strategy that really makes sense." Cain said "almost any Democrat" could split the vote. "You might get Democrats who would vote for the recall to get someone other than Gray Davis." And that could spell a Democratic defeat, even though Democrats outnumber Republican voters by nearly 10 percentage points. The reason becomes clear when you realize that voters would be asked two questions in a recall election: First, do they want to recall Davis? Second, whom do they want instead? With no precedent in this area, strategists simply don't know whether people who vote against the recall would go ahead and answer the second question. "Nobody has done systemic analysis on this," Cain said, "so we're all flying blind." It's reasonable to assume most Republicans will vote to recall Davis and to replace him with their own candidate. But if very many Democrats say no to the first question and skip the second, any Democratic candidate would lose to the Republican. Of course, the combinations of possibilities are plentiful, and the ballot could feature a glut of candidates from either or both parties. That, Republican strategist Allan Hoffenblum said, would benefit Davis. "If there's a bunch of nonhousehold names, a pig in a poke, then they'll vote no," he said. "What Gray needs is a lot of Democrats who don't think he's doing a good job to be fearful of the alternative." ::: Advertisement ::: Hoffenblum said the scenario changes if Republicans find a single popular candidate, "an Arnold Schwarzenegger" who would tempt Democrats to match him "with a Dianne Feinstein," unraveling the no- alternative strategy. Feinstein, set to retire from the U.S. Senate, wrote a widely distributed opinion piece against the recall but hasn't said outright she would never participate.
Keeping Democrats from running might be a tough trick. Torres has called on Democrats
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