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Power supply: The heat is on Unlike in 2000 and 2001, when the state was mired in an energy crisis, no one is expecting rolling blackouts this summer. But the incident was a reminder that California is not out of the woods yet when it comes to its energy needs. Although power grid managers and other experts are predicting an adequate power supply this summer, there are scenarios that could disrupt the delicate balance between supply and demand. A sustained heat wave, in particular, could set off a chain of events that could cause headaches for those charged with the keeping the lights on. ``A West-wide heat wave that reduces the amount of (power) imports and increases demand, that concerns us,'' said Jim Detmers, vice president of grid operations for the California Independent System Operator, which manages the state electrical grid. Last Wednesday's Stage 1 alert, issued because the state's power reserves were running low, was essentially a fluke, Detmers said. Temperatures were 12 to 15 degrees above predictions, he said, and grid operators were not able to bring enough power plants online in time to meet an afternoon spike in energy use. Detmers said that if the ISO had seen the the warmer-than-usual temperatures coming the day before, ``we would have been able to bring those plants up.'' Last rolling blackout The last rolling blackout in the state was May 8, 2001. Since then, the state's power fortunes have improved significantly. By August, new power plants will have added 7,916 megawatts to the power supply, enough to serve about 5.9 million homes. Meanwhile, conservation, more energy-efficient homes and the stagnant economy have all reduced demand. And a wet April has boosted the amount of water available for hydroelectric power this year. In its summer forecast released in April, the ISO predicted it would have ``adequate resources available to meet the forecasted peak demand'' this year, ``barring major generation or transmission outages.'' For example, if daily energy use hits a peak of 42,894 megawatts in August, as predicted, the ISO would still have a 3,000-megawatt buffer zone, even after factoring in power plant outages and other problems. Gloomy scenario The ISO's worst-case scenario is more gloomy. In that instance, demand climbs to 45,185 megawatts and supply drops to 43,064 megawatts, due to a combination of factors. If that happens, the ISO says it could round up 2,500 megawatts more through emergency measures, such as asking big commercial users to switch to generators, and avoid blackouts. ``But that's if we hit adverse conditions on both sides of the spectrum, with demand and supply,'' said ISO spokesman Gregg Fishman. ``It's pretty unlikely.'' Officials at Pacific Gas and Electric, which serves virtually all of Northern California, said they see no reason to expect blackouts this year. ``I think the news is pretty encouraging,'' said PG&E spokesman Jeff Smith. ``We're not experiencing nearly the strain on the system. I don't think that in terms of rolling blackouts, that's something we're anticipating.'' The wild card, as always, is the weather. Forecasters with the National Weather Service are predicting above-normal summer temperatures for the southwestern United States, especially Arizona. For California, the chances of an above-normal summer stand at 50-50. Detmers said they do not foresee any weather problems yet. ``I do not see things at this point that would cause concern,'' he said. ``We really have the capacity to meet the demand.''
But because California imports so much power -- from 3,000 to 5,000 megawatts -- from out of state, it is more vulnerable than most regions ``to the whims of Mother Nature,'' said
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