Rescue California

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GOP poised for power in recall

June 01, 2003

GOV. DARRELL ISSA. When we elect a governor or president, we must adjust to the new name behind the familiar title. If Democrats and Republicans stay on their current paths, we could be re-tuning our ears soon.

Although the odds are long, the prospect mounts that the conservative Republican car-alarm magnate and congressman from north of San Diego will become the state's next leader.

Issa's recent contributions and fund raising revived a dying drive to recall Gov. Gray Davis.

As a result, the state Democratic Party mouthpiece, Bob Mulholland, predicted last week that Republicans would gather the necessary 897,158 valid signatures to qualify the recall for a statewide vote.

"Darrell Issa has the money to make it happen," Mulholland said.

Never before has a statewide recall reached the ballot. We're headed for uncharted territory. But one can imagine a scenario in which Republicans regain the governorship.

PURELY PARTISAN. To succeed, state GOP spokesman Rob Stutzman has said, the recall must be bipartisan and broad-based.

Forget all that talk. This is a partisan battle.

Now that Issa has ignited the effort, Republicans are lining up to lay logs on the flames. There's no Democratic leader in sight.

The recall leadership need not be bipartisan nor broad-based for the effort to succeed. All it needs is some egomaniacal statewide Democratic officeholders.

DILEMMA. In a recall election, voters would face two questions -- whether to remove the governor and who should replace him.

Republicans will tell voters to oust Davis and replace him. Some Democrats smugly assume the GOP would not be able to unite behind a replacement.

Don't bet on it. At this stage, what Republican is going to deny Issa? He has paid his dues, made heavy contributions to the party, won a congressional seat after an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid -- and saved the recall.

If the party unites, he's the logical choice.

NOW WHAT? Democrats face a nightmare. They could unite behind Davis, put no replacement candidate on the ballot and focus on helping the governor defeat the recall.

It's a risky strategy -- but probably the party's best alternative. Without a replacement name on the ballot, Democratic leaders would bet it all on their ability to bolster Davis' record-low popularity and sell him as the best of evils.

Art Torres, state Democratic Party chairman, pushed that strategy. Five potential candidates --Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Treasurer Phil Angelides, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and Attorney General Bill Lockyer -- are ignoring the plea. They're keeping options open.

Term limits will force Angelides, Bustamante and Lockyer out of office in 2006. Each has waited for the end of the Davis reign. Would any be willing to let another jump to the front of the line now? Not likely.

But if more than one runs now, and Republicans unite behind Issa, Democrats are sunk.

In a recall, the replacement vote has no party primary. And no runoff. If Democrats split their vote between candidates, a single Republican could win with far less than a majority.

For years, Democrats have laughed as the California GOP split over abortion. Republican leaders have bemoaned their circular firing squad. This time, it could be the Democrats' turn.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reach Daniel Borenstein at 925-943-8248 or dborenstein@cctimes.com.