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Candidates Ready for Sprint Consider Options if Race Becomes a Marathon


September 18, 2003

In the California recall crystal ball, the future could look like this: Bill Simon Jr., the last man to lose to Gov. Gray Davis in a normal election, could be back in the running. State Senator Tom McClintock, the conservative nipping at the right of Arnold Schwarzenegger, could be running for both governor and a State Senate seat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger's unwieldy campaign could be broke.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Gray Davis could return to his day job as the state's chief executive, interrupting his official duties for fund-raising and occasional campaign-style town meetings. Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante could be wishing he had the money back that he is spending this week on television advertisements.

The federal court ruling that may result in a months-long delay in the recall election scheduled for Oct. 7 could soon force all the players in this surreal political story to rethink their electoral strategies. What was to be a three-week dash could become a six-month slog. A three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled on Monday that the election must be delayed because several populous counties are still using error-prone punch-card ballots. The full court is now considering having a larger panel hear the case.

Should the election be delayed, the candidate who potentially stands to suffer the most is Mr. Schwarzenegger, political professionals said. The movie star's campaign staff is a distended one, spending $1 million to $2 million a week.

Mr. Schwarzenegger's top four strategists as a group are making as much as $60,000 a week in commissions on the candidate's radio and television advertising, a campaign official said. Lower-level aides are being paid $8,000 to $12,000 a month and fund-raisers are taking in $10,000 a month plus commissions, aides said.

Mr. Schwarzenegger has already invested $3.5 million of his considerable fortune on the race, and it is unclear how much more he would have to spend to keep his operation functioning through March. According to campaign filings with the secretary of state's office, the campaign spent nearly $1.5 million in its first week of advertising.

"This is like Bill Gates getting married in Hawaii," said K. B. Forbes, a strategist for Mr. Simon, the businessman who dropped out of the recall race last month but is considering a return if the election is rescheduled for March, when the state holds its presidential primary.

"Bill Gates leased all the helicopters on the island so no one could lease them and videotape his wedding," Mr. Forbes said. "The Schwarzenegger camp is like that. It hired all the guns in the entire California political apparatus. Can they sustain it for five months? Five months is an eternity in politics."

Until the courts settle the election date, a Schwarzenegger spokesman said, the basic tenor of the campaign will not change.

"We're not rethinking anything yet," the spokesman, Rob Stutzman, said. "We are going to conduct this campaign as if there's an election on Oct. 7 until were sure it's delayed."

That is the official line from the other campaigns as well.

"No one knows in whose interest a delay in this election would be," Mr. Davis said on Tuesday. "I am going to continue to campaign as if this election will be held on Oct. 7."

And if the election is delayed? "As to any other strategy," the governor said, "let's wait until there's a final judgment as to when this election will take place."

Chris Lehane, an adviser to the governor, said that if the election was postponed, Mr. Davis's anti-recall campaign would slow its pace and hoard its ammunition.

"If there is no

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