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Half of Likely Voters Would Recall Davis The survey, which ended Thursday night, finds a state nearly cleaved in half by partisan divisions. Democrats are overwhelmingly negative in their assessments of the recall, while Republicans view the Oct. 7 vote in generally positive terms. But in a danger sign for Davis, Republicans appear much more energized by the off-year election, meaning they are more likely to vote. At the same time, the governor has the support of just three in four of his fellow Democrats for the recall vote. Overall, 50% of likely voters said they supported the effort to turn Davis out of office, while 45% were opposed. Most said their minds were firmly made up: just 5% of those surveyed said they were still deciding how to vote. Still, a great deal of volatility surrounds the election, which is unprecedented in California and marks just the second time in the nation's history that voters have considered recalling a governor in midterm. The size of the turnout will be decisive - and given the unique nature of the race it is difficult to project exactly who will take part in the election in just over six weeks. The Times Poll interviewed 1,351 registered voters between Aug. 16 and Aug. 21. Among them were 801 voters deemed likely to cast ballots in the recall. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey turned up a deeply sour mood among Californians, with Davis bearing the brunt of that dissatisfaction. Nearly 8 in 10 likely voters said things in California were headed in the wrong direction, and nearly 7 in 10 said the economy was in bad shape. Asked whom they blamed, roughly a third said Davis was responsible for the weak economy, while 27% blamed the Democratic-controlled Legislature. Just 17% said President Bush was responsible, despite Davis' assertions that the weak national economy has dragged California down. Overall, 72% of likely voters disapproved of Davis' job performance, including more than half of his fellow Democrats. One of them is Kimberly Perez, 33, a veterinary student in the Central Valley town of Galt. "I'm just not satisfied with the way the state's going right now," Perez said in a follow-up interview. Specifically, she cited Davis' handling of the 2001 energy crisis and the cuts made to education as part of the budget he signed this month. "I just don't think he reacted soon enough to what was going on in our state," Perez said. Davis' image as a poor leader is widely held and the main reason that likely voters said they wanted to oust him from office, less than a year after he won election to a second term. One in three likely voters cited "mismanagement" as the reason they favored Davis' recall, and 19% cited the energy crisis, which helped foster the governor's reputation for indecisiveness. Even the vast majority of those opposed to the recall cited reasons involving process - rather than personal regard for Davis - as the reason they were against the move to toss him from office. Roughly 1 in 5 said the governor was reelected fairly and deserves to serve a full four-year term, and 13% each cited the estimated $65-million cost or said the election was a "stupid idea."
"I don't think that's the way government ought to be run," said Andrew Culbreath, a 70-year-old Panorama City retiree and Democrat. "The recall is for cases of malfeasance, or misuse
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