Voters Show Uncommon Interest in Recall
58% Want Governor Removed From Office in New State Poll
August 21, 2003
Nearly 90 percent of California's voters are closely following the state's landmark recall election, a level of interest far beyond that seen for last year's governor's race, according to a poll released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Fifty-eight percent of likely voters want to see Democratic Gov. Gray Davis removed from office and they're outraged by the state's sagging economy, a dark financial future and the Legislature's handling of the budget crisis, which they believe solved nothing, said Mark Baldassare, the poll's director.
"People are much more engaged than they were a year ago for the governor's race," he said. "The recall election has captured almost everyone's attention and imagination about what the possibilities could be."
The dislike for Davis hasn't yet translated into an overwhelming affection for any of the 135 candidates looking to replace him. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor turned GOP politician, is the top choice of 23 percent of likely voters, followed by Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante with 18 percent and the remaining candidates with 5 percent or less.
But 32 percent of those surveyed haven't made a choice in the Oct. 7 replacement election and fewer than half the likely voters are satisfied with the possibilities posed by the horde of would-be governors. That could provide a glimmer of hope for Davis, Baldassare suggested.
"A lot of people . . . can't find anyone on the replacement ballot they're all that enthusiastic about," he said. "The question is how solid is the feeling for recalling Davis if people can't find someone they like as a replacement."
The recall has become a focus for voters' larger concerns about the economy and the state's future, Baldassare said.
"They lived in golden times that are fast becoming distant memories," he said. "They don't feel anyone in Sacramento is addressing their basic concerns about the economy and worry that no one has a plan."
Those concerns could drive the voting in the recall election.
"The candidates have to give people a reason to vote for them," Baldassare said. "Until we see a stronger sentiment about who should replace Davis, I'm not sure I want to write off the governor's chances."
Still, the poll shows that Davis has slipped into desperate straits.
Nearly half of California's voters believe Davis' recall alone would improve things in California, while only 17 percent are convinced the governor's ouster would make things worse. An overwhelming 72 percent of likely voters disapprove of his job performance, while 48 percent said they dislike Davis and his policies. Only 12 percent said they liked both the governor and what he has been doing.
"Those are difficult numbers to overcome," Baldassare said. "While people following the national news are hearing what a dangerous and risky move California is taking (with the recall election), voters don't see it as much of a risk, and believe it has more upside potential."
The other prominent candidates in the replacement race polled only single digits and are in danger of disappearing from the voters' radar.
"It's going to be a challenge for the other candidates to get better numbers with the lieutenant governor and a Hollywood actor attracting almost all the attention," Baldassare said.
Voters' feelings about the recall itself are mixed. While 80 percent of likely voters think it's a good idea to have the recall provision in the state Constitution, only 52 percent believe the effort aimed at Davis is appropriate.
When voters are told the recall may cost the state as much as $70 million, 53 percent of those surveyed call the election a waste of
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