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Davis strategy gets critical test in final days


August 05, 2003

Amid the anxious chatter of Democrats statewide who fear Gov. Gray Davis can't win an Oct. 7 recall election, Davis' near-term strategy remains focused on two things - staying close to Sen. Dianne Feinstein and even closer to organized labor.

So far, the path taking Davis to the 5 p.m. Saturday deadline is going to plan. Feinstein, the popular San Francisco Democrat, remains out of the race and Tuesday, the nation's largest labor group - the AFL-CIO - pledged its support of Davis while urging other California Democrats to stay off the ballot.

Still, analysts said, Davis has plenty to worry about, as they cited polls showing Davis would lose the recall if the election were held today, regardless of the mix of other candidates in the field. It's that weakness that has many Democrats reconsidering the options.

"A lot of this is out of his control," said Raphael Sonenshein, professor of political science at California State University, Fullerton. "But look at what he is doing. He's making a big point to talk to Feinstein almost every day. Getting her advice, keeping her engaged in trying to save him - which is smart because it also allows him to keep tabs on her thinking."

Sonenshein said several big unions have been polling continuously for weeks on the recall and are still weighing whether they will ask another candidate to run.

Much of the concern now is an overreaction to the polls, said Democratic political consultant Darry Sragow. While many polls show voters favoring the recall, with few undecided voters, it's "way too early to guess what is going to happen October 7."

"All the news about Gray Davis is out there and as the campaign progresses recall will begin to lose support," he said.

His research shows most Democratic voters want another strong Democrat on the ballot besides Davis as an insurance policy to keep a Republican from winning the election if Davis is recalled. Although many believe Davis's chances would suffer if Feinstein or even Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante or Attorney General Bill Lockyer were on the ballot, Sragow said the governor could still win.

"This campaign is not about Davis," he said. "This campaign is about whether or not the voters want to sanction a legal coup by the Republican Party."

Although twice elected governor, including his re-election just last November, Davis suffers with the lowest approval ratings in more than a half-century. While he may not be responsible for much of what he's been blamed for - such as the power crisis two years ago or the state's economic troubles - about 1.6 million voters signed the recall petitions this spring and summer to force the unprecedented election now two months away.

A number of prominent Democrats have been positioned to replace Davis when his term would otherwise have expired in 2006, including Bustamante, Lockyer and Treasurer Phil Angelides. But all have followed Feinstein's lead, supported Davis and stayed out of the recall election.

Still, the polls some Democrats have seen made them nervous enough to ask Feinstein to run, and Democratic members of the state Senate met Monday to discuss reconsidering the strategy of entering the campaign without a backup candidate to Davis.

Three days before the deadline, however, Davis' key support remains firm.

Kam Kuwata, a Feinstein adviser, said she's not running and has no interest in reconsidering her position, adding that she and Davis talk frequently about campaign strategy and will keep doing so.

Dan Terry, president of the California Professional Firefighters and co-chairman of Davis' Taxpayers Against the Recall, said big labor is fully committed to Davis and warned any Democrat that did break ranks would never

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