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Recall buck stops at Gray Davis' door


July 27, 2003

SACRAMENTO - Backers of the drive to recall Gov. Gray Davis blame the Democrat for everything from California's economic downturn to its energy crisis. They say he drove jobs from the state and lied about the size of the budget deficit to win re-election in November.

But while analysts say Davis may have been indecisive and slow to act, many believe he is the victim of voter wrath over circumstances at least partly beyond his control.

There's no hard evidence that Davis deliberately misled the public about the budget, and many contend he could have done little to prevent the 2000-01 energy crisis, or to shield the nation's most populous state from an economic funk felt across the country.

"There's an old story in politics: When things are going well the person at the top gets disproportionate credit, and when things are going badly the person at the top gets disproportionate blame," said Larry Gerston, a political scientist at San Jose State, offering an assessment Davis himself has made in interviews.

Recall proponents reject that view, saying it's reasonable to hold Davis responsible for problems during his tenure.

"All of the state offices are held by Democrats, the Senate and Assembly are firmly in the control of the Democrats, and he is the leader of the party. Anything that's gone wrong, he's at the helm," said Howard Kaloogian, chairman of the Recall Gray Davis Committee.

"He can't blame everybody except himself. If he's not relevant to the process we don't need him," Kaloogian said.

But by some accounts, the state's biggest recent problems were not of Davis' making.

The state's economy took a sharp turn downward in 2001, but the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto found in its annual report this year that California has mirrored national job trends since May 2000, when the boom in technology stocks ended.

California's energy crisis, meanwhile, was made possible by a flawed energy deregulation scheme approved by Pete Wilson, Davis' Republican predecessor. And Davis' claims of widespread price-gouging by energy companies have largely been vindicated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

"It's hard to blame Davis for a deregulation plan that both parties basically adopted and that was taken advantage of by energy companies," said Raphael Sonenshein, a political scientist at Cal State Fullerton.

Recall proponents contend Davis should have acted faster to solve the energy crisis, and claim he must have foreseen that the deficit would balloon from his pre-election estimate of $23.6 billion to the current estimate of $38.2 billion.

The Republican-led committee Rescue California Recall Gray Davis, which collected more than 1.6 million petition signatures to force Davis to face a recall vote Oct. 7, accuses Davis of "covering up deficits and cooking the books in Enron-type accounting."

No hard evidence has emerged to prove recall proponents' claims that Davis knowingly hid the size of the coming shortfall.

"I don't think anybody knew how big the deficit was going to be," Davis adviser Roger Salazar said.

Whatever Davis' degree of responsibility for the state's woes, polls show voters largely side with recall proponents in blaming him. That voter frustration fueled the recall movement this spring when Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, a Republican hoping to replace Davis, began pumping $1.7 million of his car alarm fortune into the signature drive.

Elected by a wide margin in 1998, Davis' popularity plummeted when the state's energy crisis escalated, with his approval rating dropping from 57 percent in January 2001 to 36 percent four months later, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the San Francisco-based Field Poll.

Voters angry over the energy crisis quickly blamed Davis for the budget deficits that followed, DiCamillo said, and his

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