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Recall election set for Oct. 7
ANALYSIS: Fiscal crisis and voter resentment led to recall

July 25, 2003

It is being called the perfect political storm -- a confluence of events, personalities and politics that combined to bring about this historic moment in California, a vote to recall a governor.

Never before has the state faced this combination of circumstances: fiscal and economic crises; unprecedented voter disenchantment with politics and state leadership; an ambitious millionaire willing to bankroll a recall election; a Legislature dominated by inexperience; and a governor devoid of charismatic leadership or tactical skills that might help avoid the gathering storm.

"Take the energy crisis, follow that with the budget crisis, add to that (Gov.) Gray Davis' personality, or lack thereof, the fact that nobody's fond of him or passionately loyal . . . that's really what made the recall happen," said San Jose State University political science Professor Terry Christensen. "It is the perfect storm."

Davis himself has acknowledged that the governor gets the

lion's share of credit for good times and blame for the bad times.

In the past, governors have found a way to ride out the bad times -- using the power of the office to force the Legislature to adhere to an agenda, relying on personal skills to win over the public or even distracting voters with a seemingly related issue.

Gov. Pete Wilson, for example, running for re-election, trailing his Democratic opponent by more than 20 points and in the midst of the mid-1990s economic downturn, aired a memorable ad attacking illegal immigrants for plunging the state into economic difficulties.

Davis has proven unable -- or unwilling -- to do any of the things that have worked in the past for other governors. He has not even managed to dominate a Legislature made up largely of political newcomers or termed-out veterans.

"If Davis had the charisma of Ronald Reagan, whatever one thought of him, we wouldn't be in this position," said John Bunzel, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

For most of Davis' first term, he enjoyed good times -- a booming economy that made possible increased spending on law enforcement and education.

"He surfed along with the good times and did not really establish himself," said Bill Whalen, former speechwriter and adviser to Wilson and now a fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Then the energy crisis arrived, and, "in the voters' mind, he was responsible for not getting things done," said Art Torres, chairman of the California Democratic Party.

Ultimately, Davis approved construction of 19 new power plants, and it was shown that the crisis had been caused by energy company executives manipulating the California market.

SLOW RESPONSE TO CRISIS But Davis' slow response to the emerging energy crisis and his acceptence of generous campaign donations from power companies hurt him in the minds of many Californians.

"The initial image was that the lights were going out, prices were going up,

and he was to blame," Torres said.

Just about the time the energy crisis passed, the state's economy took a rapid and sharp decline, and Davis and the Legislature tried to dodge the consequences, passing an election-year budget that carried over a deficit that has grown to $35 billion.

"If government made a mistake, Gray Davis didn't do it alone," said Christensen. Both the governor and the Legislature could have anticipated the energy and the budget crises, and they didn't, he said.

Faced with such problems and a quickly growing unhappiness among Californians, the customary politician would turn to longtime allies and supporters or rely on links forged with the public.

But Davis, long the lone wolf in California politics, had few places to turn.

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