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Gamble offers opportunity, danger to GOP ``It's an earthquake,'' said Jeff Lustig, a government professor at California State University-Sacramento. ``You can't tell where the boulders will fall.'' Scholars and politicians say the recall, especially if Davis is kicked out, will dramatically change the political landscape and no politician will be immune from being targeted. Business leaders fret that a recall will destabilize the already shaky economy, possibly leading to downgrades in the state's bond rating -- already among the nation's lowest. Davis is grappling with a $38.2 billion budget shortfall. And there is widespread concern that the recall will throw a monkey wrench into plans for serious budget reforms. One point is certain: No matter what the outcome, Davis faces the ignominy of being the first Golden State governor to confront a recall election. If he is removed from office, he will be only the second governor recalled. The other was North Dakota's Gov. Lynn Frazier in 1921. The recall could usher in the kind of entrenched partisanship that afflicts Washington, D.C. ``If this is successful, all governors will have this sword hanging over them,'' predicted California first lady Sharon Davis in an interview Wednesday in her Capitol office. In the short run, both parties are likely to use the recall to shore up their bases of support. But it may provide a cautionary signal to ambitious politicians who appear to rub shoulders with special interests rather than pursue public-interest policies. What's less clear is whether the recall will set off similar drives in other states, the way passage of tax-cutting Proposition 13 in 1978 and term limits in 1990 inspired populist moves across the nation. Or is the California recall so rooted in the public's displeasure with Davis that it would not influence what happens elsewhere? Californians adopted the recall nearly a century ago -- when boys wore knickers and horse-drawn wagons delivered ice door to door -- to break the stranglehold the Southern Pacific Railroad had on Sacramento. Since then, 31 recall attempts against governors have failed to reach the ballot. The current Republican-led effort ``proves it can be done, and that changes the game fundamentally,'' said Jaime Regalado, executive director of the Edmund G. ``Pat'' Brown Institute of Public Affairs. He predicted that the drive to extinguish Davis' career would ``harden partisan relationships . . . especially if the governor is tossed out of office.'' The recall is a tremendous gamble for the GOP. On the one hand, it offers an extraordinary opportunity to resuscitate the party's flagging political fortunes and pave the way for President Bush to seriously compete here when he seeks re-election in 2004. Last year, Republicans were shut out of all statewide offices for the first time since 1882. And Bush lost California in 2000. On the other hand, the recall could backfire on Republicans. Davis could be booted from office but be replaced by another Democrat. That would solidify the Democrats' strong grip on California politics. The Republicans have a golden opportunity to begin a comeback. They managed to get the recall qualified for the ballot -- a first -- but have not been able to clear the field for one strong candidate. State Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, and Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who bankrolled the signature-gathering effort, both plan to run. The GOP candidates could end up doing more squabbling with each other and convince voters that it would be safer to stick with Davis.
Another risk: A Republican could win the election, only to
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