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Recall trajectory closes in on goal


July 22, 2003

With county election officials reporting numbers that make recall balloting almost certain, political strategists are preparing for the first such gubernatorial review in state history to begin this week.

A Times survey of 26 counties Monday indicated that there should easily be enough signatures verified by Wednesday to place Gov. Gray Davis' fate before voters.

The numbers suggest an accelerated calendar that could force potential replacement candidates such as actor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon to announce this week if they plan to run.

Most county election officials had aimed to finish verifying signatures by the end of the month. But a state Court of Appeal ruling Friday and a subsequent directive Saturday from Secretary of State Kevin Shelley mandated completion of the work by Wednesday.

If there are enough recall petition signatures reported then, Shelley could certify the count as early as that night or Thursday, a spokesman said.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante would then set the election date for a Tuesday 60 to 80 days later, which would probably place Election Day on Sept. 23 or 30, or Oct. 7.

Bustamante spokeswoman Deborah Pacyna said the lieutenant governor "wants to move quickly" to call the election and will probably act "within a day or two" after receiving the certification.

Two questions are expected to be on the ballot: whether to recall Davis and, if he is removed, who should replace him.

Depending on the date set for the elections, those seeking to replace Davis could have only until Saturday to file their candidacies.

The filing period is supposed to end 59 days before the election, although state election officials are uncertain whether they must extend that deadline because it lands on a Saturday.

On the Democratic side, that looming deadline presents no problem. Party leaders insist none of their elected officials will enter the race to replace Davis.

However, on the Republican side, as many as three or four well-known candidates are preparing:

• Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who bankrolled most of the recall campaign, has already declared his candidacy.

• Schwarzenegger's political strategist, George Gorton, said he believes his client will run. "If he says go, we're ready," Gorton said.

• Simon "hasn't made the final decision," said Brent Lowder, executive director of the wealthy businessman's political action committee. "He's still in his very-seriously-considering mode. He certainly is aware of all the competing deadlines. Things could happen very rapidly this week."

• State Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, said he is waiting to see which other candidates enter the race before deciding if he will run.

As for former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, it's widely believed he will not run if Schwarzenegger does.

While the appellate court and Shelley forced a quickening of the signature verification, other legal issues still remain.

Lawyers in the secretary of state's office are reviewing whether voters get to select a replacement if Davis is recalled.

At issue are possible conflicting sections in the state constitution -- one of which suggests the lieutenant governor would automatically succeed Davis if he were recalled.

Two election law experts have said it's more likely that the replacement election is the proper course. But they have suggested the issue is ripe for legal review.

Meanwhile, Davis allies Monday asked an appeals court in Los Angeles to stop Shelley from certifying signatures until at an Aug. 8 court hearing.

A Los Angeles Superior Court judge rejected the same request last week, saying he saw neither urgency nor much merit to the claim that recall signature-gatherers committed fraud.

Taxpayers Against the Governor's Recall, which supports Davis, is optimistic the appeals court will rule in its favor. But the group is prepared to campaign against the recall

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