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Fall recall appears to be certain


July 22, 2003

Sacramento -- The recall campaign against Gov. Gray Davis is producing a dizzying carnival of legal and political scenarios that will reach a critical point this week as a special election on whether to oust the Democratic governor appears certain to be declared for this fall.

Democrats face the difficult task of holding rogue members of their own party from running on a recall ballot. At the same time, third-party candidates, independents and Republicans could be forced to make rapid-fire decisions this week on leaping into a quick and inevitably nasty campaign.

Under a quirk in California election law, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante could give these replacement candidates only a few days, perhaps just 24 hours, to file their paperwork for governor. Recall supporters warned Davis challengers Monday to be prepared to move quickly or be left flat-footed.

"Right now, judging from today, it's a circus of rumor, innuendo and strategizing from all sides," said Dave Gilliard, director of Rescue California, the most prominent recall committee.

Meanwhile, the governor's allies made an 11th-hour legal attempt Monday to block certification of the recall.

Taxpayers Against the Governor's Recall asked an appeals court to reverse a lower court ruling and issue a temporary restraining order to stop Secretary of State Kevin Shelley from certifying the recall until after a hearing on the group's allegations of illegal signature-gathering.

Lawyers for the pro-Davis group contend that the Republican-led drive used petition circulators who were not properly registered to vote in California, among other illegalities.

Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger returns this week from a worldwide tour promoting "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines," and must decide on his potential candidacy amid the wild maneuvering. His decision could dramatically alter the political landscape.

SCRAMBLING FOR THE BALLOT BOX Schwarzenegger's return to California coincides with a scheduled announcement this week by Shelley about whether recall organizers have reached their goal of 900,000 valid signatures. That could force an election as soon as Sept. 30.

The recall ballot would consist of two questions for voters: Should Davis be recalled from office? And who should replace him if he is recalled.

But state law covering recalls has produced an intriguing set of loopholes that Davis supporters could use to thwart the recall or delay it until the March 2 presidential primary. A March election is considered more favorable to Davis, because more voters are expected to participate.

One scenario has Bustamante scheduling an election so quickly it would give candidates only a day to file their paperwork. The law requires candidates to register at least 59 days before the recall election, but requires Bustamante to set an election date 60 to 80 days from Shelley's announcement.

Gilliard said he informed strategists for Schwarzenegger, financier Bill Simon, Rep. Darrell Issa of San Diego, and state Sen. Tom McClintock of Santa Barbara County that they should be prepared to quickly gather the 65 signatures and $3,500 needed to get on the ballot.

In an interview, Bustamante said he is reviewing the entire elections calendar and hasn't made a decision on when he might call the election. Either way, he said, candidates won't be caught off guard.

"All of these folks have very sophisticated political operations," Bustamante said. "I don't think you are going to catch anybody, with all the newspaper accounts and media attention, flat-footed on anything at this point."

'IF APPROPRIATE' Legal scholars and politicians are picking over the state's poorly written and confusing law on recall elections for other loopholes, however. Another scenario has Bustamante blocking anyone from running against Davis on a recall ballot, since the law says replacement candidates are

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