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Counties verifying signatures
SAMPLING OF 1.2 MILLION NAMES INDICATES MAJORITY ARE VALID

July 17, 2003

Elections officials in the 10 counties with the most recall petition signatures are finding the vast majority are valid, making it likely that the measure to unseat Gov. Gray Davis will qualify for the ballot.

Random sampling of one-third of the 1.2 million signatures submitted to these counties has shown that 84 percent or more are valid. If that figure holds up -- and elections officials can complete their work by Wednesday's reporting deadline -- it could force Secretary of State Kevin Shelley to certify the recall election as soon as next week.

``This is a slam-dunk,'' said Ted Costa, who has led the signature-gathering drive. ``It's sheer impossible for them to deny us because we don't have enough signatures.''

Costa said recall supporters have submitted about 1.6 million signatures statewide.

Shelley had advised county elections officials that by Wednesday's reporting deadline they needed to verify only signatures handed in by June 16. That could have added at least another month to the process, and recall advocates accused Shelley, a former Democratic assemblyman from San Francisco, of using delaying tactics to help the governor.

But the 10 counties are working to verify all the signatures received as of the close of business Wednesday as soon as possible, and at least five expect to be finished by next Wednesday.

Once counties determine that recall proponents have turned in 1 million valid signatures, Shelley will have 10 days to certify the election.

The state must call an election between 60 and 80 days after a recall is certified. If it is certified before Sept. 4, it must be held this fall. And some registrars speculated that could happen as early as Sept. 30 or Oct. 7. After Sept. 4, it could be set for March.

If the governor's allies can't stop the recall, they want to make sure it is not held this fall, but in March, when it would coincide with the Democratic presidential primary. Davis supporters expect the heavy Democratic turnout in that election would save his job.

Davis supporters who sued the secretary of state hoping to stop the count before it gets certified were dealt a setback Wednesday, when a Los Angeles County judge rejected their request to hear the case before next Wednesday's deadline. Instead, he set a court date for Aug. 8.

Peter Kiesel, a pro-Davis lawyer, said the suit could still have an effect, possibly delaying the election. He contends that recall advocates hired as many as 1,000 out-of-state petition circulators, in violation of state law, something the recall advocates deny.

Counties are required to do two things once they receive petitions: count the number of signatures and verify that the signers are registered voters. Counties with fewer than 500 signatures verify them all. Counties with more than 500 signatures check the validity by sampling 500 signatures or 3 percent of the total, whichever is greater.

The recall needs 897,158 valid signatures to be certified, but recall proponents need 110 percent of that number -- close to 1 million signatures -- for the statistical sampling that counties are now doing to be sufficient. Otherwise, counties will have to go back and verify each signature, a process that could take six weeks or longer, possibly delaying the election until March.

Several county officials said that did not seem likely.

``Based on the numbers they say they've got, and the number they've found valid, they should qualify overwhelmingly,'' said Bruce Bradley, assistant registrar of voters in Ventura County. But he said reaching the 1 million signature threshold by next Wednesday ``depends on what L.A., Orange and San Diego do.''

Among the 10 counties with the most signatures, five county elections officials said

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