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Initiatives could bring Davis foes to the polls If a recall election is held this fall, the question of whether Davis should be removed won't be the only the issue voters decide. Right alongside it will be Connerly's "racial privacy" initiative. That initiative, the descendant of Proposition 209 of 1996, would bar governments from collecting racial and ethnic data to track students, vendors or workers in education, contracting or employment. Foes say they need more data, not less, and that the initiative could cripple outreach programs. Connerly believes it is a major step toward his dream of a "colorblind" society. Right now, the initiative is on the March ballot. It qualified last July, but not in time to appear on the November 2002 ballot. State law requires it to appear before voters at the next statewide election. But if the recall initiative qualifies soon enough, the next statewide election will be held this fall, not in March. Experts differ here, but this could be bad news for Davis. That's because Connerly's initiative is favored 3-2 by all voters, according to the April Field Poll. Those voters are highly motivated to cast ballots, and political strategists believe most of them are not ardent supporters of the governor - to put it mildly. Even Davis' own Democrats only narrowly oppose the initiative. That means the recall election will excite the Republican base and attract not only those voters anxious to dump Davis, but those supporting Connerly's initiative - a double whammy for the governor when he is most vulnerable. Connerly himself has not taken a position on Davis' recall. Davis' adherents believe the recall will galvanize Davis' grass-roots support. In 1998, labor beat back an attempt to weaken its ability to collect dues. Labor played a critical role five months later when Davis won the governorship. Davis' strategists believe that similar anger is building against the recall, and that Connerly's initiative could fan the flames. A November ballot would also hold other surprises. An amendment, already set for March 2, to guarantee money for highways, schools and parks, would instead shift to November. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who wants Davis' job and donated $1.2 million to jump-start the recall campaign, is all but certain to be on the ballot as a replacement for Davis. Then there's Arnold Schwarzenegger. He would like to be governor, but is playing coy. His advisers said he's waiting to see if the recall is serious and if Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein declines to step in. Both conditions now appear to have been met, which means Schwarzenegger is likely to run. That's quite a lineup - race, recall and the Terminator. Davis, who has won elections for two decades, faces his toughest fight yet.
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CONTACT US: (916) 449-6687 or jhoward@ocregister.com
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