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California Democrats conflicted
Recall drive has many uncertain

June 26, 2003

OAKLAND, Calif. - Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to 1 here, but even in this city there's no assurance the party faithful will help rescue Governor Gray Davis from the possible ignominy of being the first California governor to face a recall election.

''Most people don't like Gray Davis, but they don't want a recall election either,'' said 20-year-old Benjamin Debonis of Piedmont, who was collecting signatures for a Democratic Party petition to symbolically counter the recall effort.

Still, Debonis was ambivalent about Davis. ''Personally, I'm leaning more against the recall,'' he said. ''But I don't know. I wouldn't rule out voting against him.''

Just a few months ago, the recall effort was widely viewed as a political sideshow in a state accustomed to the unconventional. With more than two months left before their Sept. 2 deadline, recall organizers say they have more than 860,000 of the nearly 900,000 signatures needed to force a recall election, which could happen by year's end. The secretary of state has certified 376,008 signatures so far.

''We all thought it wouldn't happen, but the stars have converged,'' said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Media at Sacramento State University.

The possibility of a recall is causing political schizophrenia among Democrats, she said. ''They're not enamored with the governor, but Democrats don't want to contribute to the end-running of the Democratic political process.''

Democrats such as Daphne McCarley are conflicted. ''We shouldn't be doing a recall, not now,'' she said. The state budget, which has a $38 billion deficit, is still unsettled, and a recall could divert attention from other pressing issues, she said. But if a recall makes the ballot, she said, ''I would have to look at the list of candidates.''

Virtually all of California's statewide office holders, all Democrats, have closed ranks around the embattled governor.

Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante announced last week he will not seek the state's top job if the recall makes the ballot.

Other state officeholders - including the attorney general, treasurer, and controller - say they will not run.

Senator Dianne Feinstein, who made a failed bid for governor in 1990 and who many consider the state's most popular Democrat, said Saturday she would stay out of the race.

Few analysts think that Davis, who is six months into his second term, could survive a recall if another Democrat came forward to challenge him.

''Whichever party does a better job at disciplining itself will elect the next governor,'' said Dan Schnur, a GOP strategist and former spokesman for Pete Wilson, the last Republican to hold the state's top elected office.

Voters will be asked two questions simultaneously: Should Davis be removed from office, and, if so, who among a list of candidates should replace him? State law bars Davis from appearing on that list.

Dissatisfaction with Davis is widespread. Polls continue to show him with low approval ratings. Among Democrats, 38 percent approve of his job performance, according to a recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

''California isn't the only place with a budget deficit,'' said Schnur. ''But for Californians, the budget crisis is the second act of a two-act play. Earlier, in his [first] term, Davis was perceived as mishandling the energy crisis.''

US Representative Darrell Issa, a conservative Republican representing the San Diego area, has his eyes on the governor's office and has pumped $800,000 into the recall campaign. Bill Simon, whom Davis beat in November, is considering making another run. So is Richard Riordan, the former Los Angeles mayor who lost in the Republican primary against

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