HAHN FOR MAYOR
18553 Ventura Blvd.
Tarzana, CA 91356

Candidate Polls Yield Mixed Answers

MARCH 15, 2001
LOS ANGELES DAILY NEWS

With the election for mayor of Los Angeles entering its critical final four weeks, City Attorney James Hahn has emerged in internal polls as the man to beat -- and his five rivals are scrambling for a strategy that will get them into the June runoff.

Polls conducted for the candidates in what likely will shape up as the city's costliest mayoral primary show Hahn consistently as leading or near the lead in the battle to get the 100,000-plus votes needed to be one of the two finalists.

The latest poll conducted in the past week for candidate Steve Soboroff shows the businessman and adviser to Mayor Richard Riordan surging into second place. Similar polls conducted for other candidates have found them in solid position to make the runoff following the April 10 primary.

"Our view is that this race is absolutely wide open," said John Shallman, consultant to state Controller Kathleen Connell. "I don't think anyone will have a clear view on who the front-runner is until five or six days before the election."

Similar sentiments were expressed by other camps, but Hahn and his people are the most confident.

With the largest amount of money available, Hahn has pursued a traditional campaign, appearing at forums and fund-raisers as he relies on his high name recognition and an extensive television advertising budget.

"If the other campaigns are smart, they aren't looking to beat Jim Hahn, they're looking to get into a runoff with him," said Hahn consultant Kam Kuwata. "We are running our campaign and fleshing out his record and his platform.

"When you have a record, it's something we can point to and we are talking about specific things a mayor can do, from 1,000 more cops to an after-school program at all schools. These are things all in line with what a mayor can do -- real things."

Campaign strategy

The other major campaigns have developed strategies they believe can win with a combination of mailing, TV ads, personal appearances and grass-roots organizing to drive their message.

Closely behind Hahn in most independent and internal polls are Councilman Joel Wachs, former Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and Soboroff. Yet, state Controller Kathleen Connell and Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Los Angeles, cite their own numbers to advance their case for political viability.

Soboroff's campaign cites its poll of likely voters showing Hahn with 24 percent, Soboroff 18, Villaraigosa 12, Wachs 9, Connell 4 and Becerra 3.

"While Hahn leads the field with 24 percent of the vote, Soboroff has continued his remarkable surge of the past few weeks," pollster John Fairbank wrote in a memo. "(Soboroff) now places second with 18 percent, not just among all voters but among most geographic and demographic groups across Los Angeles.

"With most of the other candidates registering only single-digit support, the mayor contest is narrowing to a two-person race."

Needless to say, the other campaigns disagree.

Wachs, a populist City Council member for 30 years, has been at or near the top of the field since making his announcement last year and continues to draw strong numbers.

Valley support

But other campaigns say they believe Wachs has peaked and will lose ground in the closing weeks as he did in 1993's mayoral race. The councilman's advisers say he has a strong base of support in the Valley and among the elderly as well as across political party lines.

"(Voters) are seeking an independent, outspoken leader to be their next mayor and Wachs' record and public profile precisely fit the bill," according to a memo from his pollster, GLS Research, whose early February survey showed him ahead of Hahn.

Connell is able to draw from the same group of voters as she wages her effort, and her poll has her in second place behind Wachs with Hahn third.

"People are looking for an outsider and she fits that bill, while also having government experience," Shallman said. "And this race hasn't been decided.

"In 1993, (former Councilman Mike) Woo was at more than 30 percent at this point. By most accounts, Hahn is in the low 20s or less. That makes it possible for someone else to come in."

Villaraigosa consultant Parke Skelton also sees the election as open based on a poll by the Mellman Group showing the former speaker just behind Hahn and Wachs.

"We aren't concerned about knocking Hahn off," Skelton said. "We want to get into the runoff. We think we have extraordinary support across the city and are in the process of consolidating that. Hahn's support is based on being in public office for 20 years and better name recognition.

"We also have wide support from our endorsing organizations that will help get out our vote."

Villaraigosa has received the support of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO, and the county Democratic Party, which are expected to provide both money and volunteers.

Wachs' campaign manager Sue Burnside said the councilman's base of support remains solid.

Get out the vote

"Soboroff has been coming up but there still is a lot of campaign ahead of us," Burnside said. "We just have to implement our plan and get our voters out. Our voters are not going to be Hahn voters, so we have to work on our base."

For his part, Becerra has been concentrating on a grass-roots effort in his Mount Washington-based district and the eastside.

Campaign spokeswoman Allyson Laughlin said Becerra has put together a volunteer corps of some 1,000 people ready to walk precincts and get voters to the polls.

His own poll taken in early February showed him in a tie for fourth place and moving upward, according to the memo from GarinHartYang Research Group.

"Congressman Becerra has improved his citywide name recognition and positive ratings ... and he remains very much in the running to make the run-off," the memo said.

Polling for all the candidates share one common thread -- each campaign believes it can win and is counting on wooing the large number of undecided voters, anywhere from 25 to 35 percent.

"My perspective, working as a strategist who has probably done over 1,000 of these surveys, is that no one can say who will win," said GOP pollster Arnie Steinberg, who is not involved in any of the campaigns.

"First of all, many candidate polls tend to be self-serving. That's unfortunate because they aren't serving the candidate. Often they are giving the client numbers they want to hear."

None of the campaigns is expected to get directly involved in negative campaigning at this point.

"All it does is drag down the person you are attacking with no guarantee those votes will come to you," Kuwata said.

However, Shallman and others said they do expect some sort of negative efforts to be launched by independent organizations seeking to advance one candidate over another.