HAHN FOR MAYOR
18553 Ventura Blvd.
Tarzana, CA 91356

Times Poll: Voters Haven't Yet Focused Much On The Race, But James K. Hahn, Joel Wachs Are Early Leaders

APRIL 13, 2000
LOS ANGELES TIMES

-- Jim Newton, Times Staff Writer

With the next mayoral election one year away, a Times poll has found that Los Angeles voters have formed few opinions about the candidates, though they are eager for change and hopeful that the next mayor will set new priorities.

The early look at the campaign horse race shows that none of the candidates has made much of an impression and most registered voters confess they have no opinions about the bulk of the field.

City Atty. James K. Hahn enjoys a slight edge over his rivals, with 16% of the voters who were questioned saying they would like to see him win. City Councilman Joel Wachs finishes second in that contest, with 14% of those questioned backing him. The gap between them is within the poll's margin of sampling error, which is plus or minus three percentage points.

The poll, conducted by telephone from March 29 through April 5, took responses from 1,219 city residents, of whom 896 are registered voters.

Among the announced candidates, Hahn and Wachs have by far the longest history in Los Angeles politics: Hahn has won five citywide elections and Wachs has held his council seat for more than 20 years.

Perhaps as a result, they find themselves alone in the top tier at this early stage, when name recognition is key. Just below them is a larger group of contenders, some of whom are just beginning to crack the public consciousness.

Although they did not register the same numbers as their better known opponents, the biggest surprises in the new poll may be Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra. Eleven percent of the registered voters polled favored Villaraigosa, while 10% backed Becerra.

A year ago, Villaraigosa was a powerful Sacramento figure but a virtual unknown locally--at least outside his Assembly district. In recent months, however, he has diligently campaigned, sometimes making four or five public appearances in a single evening.

One of them caught the eye of Angelita Guerrero, who met the assemblyman at an auction where Villaraigosa was one of the auctioneers. Guerrero, who has lived in Los Angeles for 60 years, came away impressed.

"He's seems like a very intelligent young man," said Guerrero, who agreed to a follow-up interview about her poll responses. "He's very energetic. I like his ideas."

>Splitting the Latino Vote

The emergence of Villaraigosa and Becerra as solid members of the second tier is made all the more impressive by the fact that they are clearly splitting the city's Latino electorate, with 22% of those voters favoring Becerra and 33% backing Villaraigosa.

Although they finished in a statistical dead heat, beneath those numbers are others that hint at a slight edge to Villaraigosa. Although nearly half of Becerra's supporters list Villaraigosa as their second choice, only a quarter of those who support Villaraigosa pick Becerra as their top alternate.

Those four elected officials--Hahn, Wachs, Villaraigosa and Becerra--all are announced candidates for mayor, but they are closely shadowed by two possible candidates, state Controller Kathleen Connell and county Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky. In the poll, each of those two politicians received the support of 9% of the registered voters. Rumors abound about both officials, because each has tested the waters for a possible campaign but neither has committed to the race.

Their numbers make it clear that each would be a credible candidate in this field, but their poll numbers are less commanding than observers had predicted, particularly for Yaroslavsky. The supervisor, who served for years as a Los Angeles city councilman before winning a seat on the county board, generally is thought to enjoy such widespread name recognition that he would be an instantly credible contender.

The current poll in one sense supports that. More voters recognized Yaroslavsky and Hahn than any of the others. But still, nearly six in 10 voters either had not heard of Yaroslavsky or did not know enough about him to register an opinion--numbers virtually identical to Hahn's and extraordinarily low ones for two men who have spent nearly their entire adult lives in elected office.

And yet, when voters were asked a slightly different question than who they would like to see win--namely, who they would be inclined to favor at this point--Yaroslavsky finished far higher. In response to that question, 26% of the registered voters picked Yaroslavsky, more than any other candidate. Hahn and Wachs finished second in response to that question, with each getting 23%. Connell and Villaraigosa tied for third at 15% each, and Becerra trailed with 10%.

That leaves out one declared candidate, commercial real estate broker Steve Soboroff, who leads all challengers in terms of money raised and spent and who carries the endorsement of the city's popular incumbent, Mayor Richard Riordan. But Soboroff has made only the slightest impression on the public.

Of the registered voters interviewed for this poll, only 1% said that as of today they would like to see the election go to Soboroff, who serves as president of the Recreation and Parks Commission and advises Riordan on education issues. Nearly three-quarters of those polled had never heard of him, and another 14% said they hadn't heard enough about him to form an opinion about his candidacy. When asked who they were inclined to support, 5% said Soboroff, though 6% said they were inclined not to. He was the only candidate to have more voters say they were not inclined to support him than those who said they were inclined to.

There is some consolation for Soboroff, however. In January 1993, Riordan enjoyed the support of just 7% of those polled. Four months later, he forced City Councilman Mike Woo into a runoff, and in June, Riordan was elected.

There are other reasons to look at these poll numbers, taken so far in advance of the election, with some caution. The sample is weighted to reflect the city's ethnic diversity, but Latinos are a far bigger presence in the population than in the electorate, so their influence on the mayor's race is hard to predict. Moreover, the poll did not identify the various candidates by occupation, which could suppress all of the candidates' figures to some extent and possibly Soboroff's in particular, since he is the only non-politician in the field.

Soboroff's early fund-raising has received a major boost as a result of Riordan's endorsement. One party at Riordan's house netted Soboroff more than $ 500,000. But Riordan's support may affect only a limited number of voters, the poll found.

Two-thirds of the registered voters who were surveyed said Riordan's endorsement would have no effect on their choices--though 11% said the mayor's support would make them "much more likely" to vote for a candidate and another 11% said it would make them "somewhat more likely" to support one.

As the poll demonstrates, even after seven years in office, Riordan strikes a curious chord with the city electorate. Voters overwhelmingly like him and believe the area's economy is on solid footing. They also feel safer than they once did and feel more positive about local race relations than they have in years past, though 53% continue to say that relations between groups are "not good" or "poor."

At the same time, a solid majority of voters, 61%, would like the next mayor to change Riordan's policies, either a lot or a little, compared with just 23% who want Riordan's successor to stay the course.

Disagreeing with Riordan is not the same as disliking him, though. In fact, when voters are asked who they would support for mayor without being prompted by the names of the candidates, Riordan is by far the top finisher. Term limits make that impossible.

Hoping Mayor Will Clean Up LAPD

In follow-up interviews, several poll respondents said they hope the next mayor will play an aggressive role in cleaning up the Los Angeles Police Department, which has been rocked by revelations of officer misconduct centered in its Rampart Division.

Those residents do not agree, however, on which candidate is best suited to do that.

Two of those interviewed remarked on Hahn's decision to endorse the creation of an independent commission to investigate the scandal--a course first recommended by Wachs and also supported by Villaraigosa. Hahn initially supported allowing the Police Commission to handle that inquiry, and provided interpretations of the City Charter unambiguously reinforcing the principle of civilian oversight. He also backed the commission's authority to instruct Police Chief Bernard C. Parks to cooperate with the district attorney's office. But Hahn swung his support to the independent commission after bickering among the police chief, the district attorney and others.

In the poll, three-quarters of all Los Angeles residents supported the appointment of an independent panel, while just 12% backed leaving the investigation in the hands of the Police Commission.

Among the mayoral candidates, Hahn, Becerra, Wachs and Villaraigosa all have voiced support for an independent commission. Only Soboroff supports Riordan's view, and Soboroff neglected to mention it during the only debate of the mayoral candidates held so far.

In announcing his support for an independent commission, Hahn suggested that city leaders call on Warren Christopher, an esteemed Los Angeles lawyer and former U.S. secretary of State, to head the panel. Christopher, who headed the commission that proposed many police reforms after the 1991 beating of Rodney G. King, declined the invitation, saying that, for now at least, the Police Commission should play the lead role. Although Hahn did not succeed in drawing Christopher into the fray, some poll respondents appreciated the attempt.

Others echoed concerns about the LAPD but voiced their support for other candidates to address those fears.

Myra Morales, a South-Central resident who has lived in Los Angeles her whole life, said she believes Becerra's experience in Congress and his concern for his constituents would make him an ideal candidate to run the city and clean up the Police Department.

"Being a congressman, he's probably seen a lot come through his office," Morales said. "This whole LAPD thing--someone needs to step in. Mayor Riordan should be doing that. If the district attorney and the police chief have problems, he should mediate."

Becerra, she said, would do just that.

Another poll respondent, Hollywood resident Al Collins, agreed that the LAPD should occupy much of the next mayor's attention. But Collins, who was highly critical of the current mayor, said he thinks Wachs is the best person to handle the Rampart crisis and its ramifications.

"He's a very positive person," Collins said. "He's very visible, which Riordan is not. And I don't think he'd be a figurehead, which I think Riordan is."